Tuesday, July 19, 2005

Shitstorm T-5:45

President Bush will announce his nominee for the Supreme Court tonight at nine. With political action committees poised to spend 100 million dollars, let's just say things are probably going to get pretty messy.

UPDATE: Everybody keeps talking about how Edith Clement will be Bush's nominee, citing TradeSports.com. But a SCOTUS nomination is not a decision that is made by aggregating the preferences of many people, it is made by one person or a small group of people in secret. This is why TradeSports wrongly predicted that Rehnquist would be the first to retire. The reason that TradeSports predicted the 2004 presidential election and how all 50 states would fall was that it was mimicking the underlying decision making process.

UPDATE2: Regardless, Clement is now trading lower than where she opened the day. See here.

UPDATE3: Everyone is saying it's John Roberts, we'll know for sure pretty soon.


Anonymous said...

We should spend more time and money on impeaching supreme court justices rather than on appointing them.

Adam Scavone said...

From Wikipedia's John G. Roberts, Jr. entry:

Environmental regulation. On the U.S. Court of Appeals, Roberts wrote a dissenting opinion siding with a developer in a case involving the protection of a rare Californian toad under the Endangered Species Act. He argued that the interstate commerce clause of the Constitution did not permit the government to regulate activity affecting what he called "a hapless toad" that "for reasons of its own lives its entire life in California."